Home : Newsletters : 2002 : April
The Sunday Times recently reported that the outlook for jobs was recovering sharply. This was based on the latest Manpower quarterly survey of employment prospects.
The Manpower survey asks over 2,000 companies whether they plan to increase or decrease the number of staff they employ in the three months to the end of June 2002 (Q2) - so is based on expectations rather than actualities. Despite this, the results are interesting. In the three months up to the end of March 2002 (Q1), the net balance for the same question was 0% - meaning that the number of firms who planned to increase their staffing levels was the same as those who planned to decrease them. This figure had fallen sharply from more optimistic balances throughout 2001.
The net balance figure for Q2 was 15%, meaning that 15% more organisations planned to increase their staffing numbers in the next three months compared to the number who planned to decrease them.
The average figure of 15% varies between industry sectors. The sector with the most positive outlook is Hotels and Restaurants at 31%, presumably anticipating a positive summer after decline and redundancies at the back end of 2001. The Health sector was also positive at 26%, as were Food and Beverages at 22%, Transport at 20% and Construction also at 20%. The electronics sector is at the other end of the scale with a figure of 0% - electronics companies anticipate that staffing levels will not change in the next three months. The Automotive and Retail sectors were also less positive than average with net balances of 4%.
There are also regional variations. Scotland was the most optimistic with 22%. Other strong regions include the South West, North West and Wales. London is the least optimistic at 8%, 7% below the national average.
Although only speculative this survey could be good news for a recruitment industry that almost seems to be operating ‘in limbo’ at the moment, waiting for evidence of a recovery. An indication of how the recruitment industry has suffered in the last year can be gained from the volume of recruitment advertising being placed in the national quality press. This has decreased dramatically in the last twelve months. In the twelve months up to the end of February 2002 the quality national press carried 155,171 jobs – advertised over 3,276,956 column centimetres. This compares to 208,451 jobs and 4,216,859 column centimetres in the previous twelve months (MMS).
There are a few possible explanations for this decrease in print advertising. The first is that large amounts of recruitment advertising are migrating from print to online. This is certainly true in some sectors, for example IT, but this theory cannot be used to explain decreases in the print market of approximately 25% over the last twelve months. A more likely explanation is that organisations are recruiting less staff due to the economic downturn.
In light of this, the latest Manpower survey is interesting, but as it is based on expectation rather than evidence cannot be taken as a definite sign that a recovery has started. The best indication of recovery will be tangible evidence, such as an increase in activity within the recruitment advertising market, in print or online.